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Top stories

OpenAI’s Altman Teases GPT-5 as August Launch Nears

OpenAI’s Altman Teases GPT-5 as August Launch Nears

Authors

11

19 hours ago

Prediction markets for ChatGPT Go

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

157

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

113835

Will another "ChatGPT moment" or AI panic happen before an AI bust?

Aug 22, 9:02 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

433318

OptionProbability

Explosion of interest and/or investment in AI will happen first

Deflation of interest in and/or investment in AI will happen first

Neither will happen before 2100

49

47

4

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

57.53%chance

391946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

674

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will Google Gemini pass ChatGPT in the App Store by EOY?

Mar 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.7%chance

16494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will Grammarly go bankrupt/defunct before the end of 2028?

Mar 13, 7:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.63%chance

19382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

946

Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?

Mar 27, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.91%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

367

27

Will I find customer help chatbots infuriating in these years?

Jan 14, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6122

OptionProbability

2024

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

80

54

50

50

50

48

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

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