ChatGPT Jesús News

YES

NO

A second major version of the model has been released

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

Video will include sound

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

It will be free to use

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Sora will be part of GPT model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A third major version of the model has been released

It has been renamed

Full description of model architecture will be public

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Xi Jinping

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Zohran Mamdani

Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

Jensen Huang

[Next FOMC Chair]

Robots (not self driving cars)

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jerome Powell

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Appearance by an A-list actor (A-list status judged by Claude)

Someone uses a Japanese honorific while speaking English

Someone says "fuck" or derivatives

A new Nintendo Switch or Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive game is announced

Someone says "AI", "artificial intelligence", or "ChatGPT"

Expedition 33 wins 3+ awards

Expedition 33 wins 6+ awards

A Nintendo game wins Best Family Game

A Nintendo (NCL) or Nintendo of America employee appears in-person

A Muppet insults Geoff

Anyone speaks a full sentence in French

Anyone speaks a full sentence in Japanese

Bloodborne is mentioned at all whatsoever

3 or more awards announced in the span of 1 minute

7 or more parts of Marnix's 9-way Game Awards Parlay occur

Game Changer award returns

Main Show "The Game Awards 2025" will last more than two and a half hours in total (exact seconds)

The Game Awards 2025 broadcast (preshow or main event) display Chinese (Hanzi) or Japanese (Kanji/Kana) text anywhere seing

A second indie game starring a cute animal gets announced

Will any single question in this the 'The Game Awards 2025 Prop Bets' market exceed 29 unique holders?

Advertisement for Warframe or Soulframe

The show is better than average (judged by Manifold poll)

More than 35% questions here will resolve to YES! or True! or Correct! (including preresolved)

manifolders will vote :YES. Wonderful: in the (TV Do you like idea) poll - 3 times more than other options combined

Jonathan Blow mentioned

Upcoming Half-Life game or related rumors/hype are mentioned at all, even jokingly

A winner keeps talking for 15+ seconds after their end music starts

Someone references the "please wrap it up" incident

Geoff Keighly is wearing a tie

Technical difficulties stall show or break livestream for >30 seconds

Geoff trips

Geoff audibly coughs or clears throat 3+ times

Someone references the Reformed Orthodox Rabbi Bill Clinton incident

Someone references the Sid the Science Kid meme

KCD 2 wins 1+ awards

Steam deck "2" information and/or Steam Machine Price Points

Expedition 33 wins 11 awards???

Gabe Newell appears in-person

Bloodborne 2 is confirmed

Anyone says "Half-Life 3"

New VR-first game announced

Disputed resolution on any TGA-related Polymarket market

Full sentences spoken in 4+ different languages

Geoff insults a Muppet

Hideo Kojima on stage

New video game movie / TV show announced

Game shadowdropped

Someone references Concord or Mindseye

3 or more ads for movies

Hideo Kojima speaks a full sentence of >3 words in English

6 or more of Polygon's predictions are wrong

Anyone mentions / alludes to tariffs

Grand Theft Auto 6 makes an appearance

Will more than 159 users on Manifold Markets join this TV translation today?

6 7 Fortnite Emote Announced

Someone makes a joke about a Game Awards Peace Prize

Anyone says "Charlie Kirk"

Will the total number of answers added to this translation today exceed 99? >99 YES <99 NO =99 50%

Anyone says "six seven" (NOT "sixty-seven", etc)

Over 5 dogs shown

Anyone says "Layoffs"

A Muppet flirts with Geoff or vice versa for a second time (after 7:17 CT)

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

Zohran Mamdani

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Gavin Newsom

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Marco Rubio

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

Elon Musk

AOC

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jeffrey Epstein

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Dario Amodei

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Taylor Swift

Donald Trump

The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders

Elon Musk

J. D. Vance

Jensen Huang

Sam Altman

Gavin Newsom

Dario Amodei

Xi Jinping

Pete Hegseth

Tsai Ing-wen

Donald Trump (again, after 2024)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Any Protestor

The civillians/the victims of war/the bystanders

Gen Z

Narendra Modi

Artificial Intelligence

Vladimir Putin

Gretchen Whitmer

Liang Feng

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jeremy Hansen

Pope Leo XIV

SCOTUS

Christina Koch

Victor Glover

ChatGPT

Benjamin Netanyahu

OpenAI

Emmanuel Macron

The Ukrainian Soldier

Vivek Ramaswamy

Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud

A.G.I.

Reid Wiseman

The Union Workers

Mahmud Abbas

Trump Prosecutors

Sundar Pichai

Larry Ellison

mRNA vaccine researchers

Robots

The spirit of Palestine

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Charles III

Fumio Kishida

Ray Kurzweil

Matt Gaetz

Marine Le Pen

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes

Travis Kelce

Hollywood strikers

Jon Bon Jovi

Geoffrey Hinton

Nikki Haley

The spirit of Israel

Sergey Sobyanin

Lil Tay

Logan Paul

Barron Trump

Joe Biden

Nvidia

Kamala Harris

Jerome Powell

Pierre Poilievre

Cenk Uygur

Annie Altman

Jimmy Carter

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Improve the bread

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Bake for 15 more minutes

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Autolyse 20 minutes

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Make the bread taste good

put ketchup and cheese on it

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Make banana bread

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Add garlic

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Brush on an egg wash

Make the bread great again

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Strawberry jelly filling

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Bake vegimite into it.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Increase water by 50 g

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Other

Google (eg Gemini)

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

ChatGPT

Nvidia

Elon Musk

AI

Claude AI

Israel

Nuclear

Bird flu

Iran

Manifold Markets

Bitcoin

Trump

Effective Altruism

Syria

Pandemic

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

OpenAI settles

OpenAI found guilty of deliberate aid and encouragement of suicide

OpenAI found guilty of anything under the strict products liability doctrine or negligence

Explicit restrictions on ChatGPT or OpenAI's marketing

Goes to trial

OpenAI found guilty of manslaughter