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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Projects

Will a high-speed rail line between London and Manchester in the UK be operational before 2045?

May 1, 7:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

35.67%chance

151330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

160

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.75%chance

10919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

949

44

Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030?

Aug 22, 6:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.51%chance

6850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1583

632

OpenAI proven to have killed/imprisoned Julia Galef XOR Manifold Markets mentioned in BBC News by 2026?

Oct 11, 1:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

8608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.01%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

438

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

34

32

11

11

11

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

250

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