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Prediction markets for ChatGPT Search

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

91%chance

231906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

824

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36%chance

23724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

175

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?

Mar 11, 12:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

3.68%chance

9508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

20

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2027?

Jan 18, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.7%chance

1082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

180

Will "DeepSeek" surpass "ChatGPT" in Google Trends worldwide search interest for 7 consecutive days before June 30, 2026

Feb 26, 8:06 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.09%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

59.02%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

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