OptionProbability
High Inflation + Low GDP + High Unemployment (Stagflation)
All Metrics Within Normal Bounds
High Inflation + Normal GDP
High Inflation + High GDP
Low GDP Only
High GDP Only
Low Inflation + High GDP
Low Inflation + Low GDP
23
18
10
8
5
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
228
160
306
7
1116
1014
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
48
41
6
