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Prediction markets for Chats

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

697973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

909

Will Chat GPT 6 release before the end of 2026?

Apr 24, 3:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.52%chance

334979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1574

532

DGG Chat (yes) vs YouTube Chat (no) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 8:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

683871

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1479

938

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.48%chance

213816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

241

YouTube Chat

Oct 26, 12:12 PMDec 31, 6:00 AM

61.73%chance

302162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

902

Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030?

Mar 27, 12:51 PMMar 27, 9:59 PM

44.53%chance

221588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

633

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 24, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.32%chance

17553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

821

AI voice chat servers before 2026?

May 13, 11:31 AMMar 8, 10:59 PM

83.05%chance

18376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

927

High quality unlimited duration AI voice chat that can call servers when?

Dec 11, 9:56 AMDec 11, 9:39 AM

3120

OptionProbability

2027 first half

2026 second half

2027 second half

2028 first half

2028 second half

2029 first half

2029 second half

2030 first half

2030 second half

2031 first half

2031 second half

2032 first half

Other

2026 first half

11

10

10

10

8

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will "What We Learned Trying to Diff Base and Chat ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.07%chance

324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

995

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