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Prediction markets for Check Point

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

45.9%chance

559182985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4867

3807

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

3411568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11171

7571

Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?

May 18, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.45%chance

205975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1807

553

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

25.81%chance

64148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

590

Will GPT-5 be able to make original jokes Manifold users consider funny?

Apr 21, 6:20 PMSep 1, 9:59 PM

19.07%chance

524027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1943

184

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will Polymarket add PWHL as a tradeable category in their sports section by end of 2025?

Dec 4, 5:22 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

15.21%chance

51361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.64%chance

251239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

580

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.78%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.34%chance

9847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

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