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Prediction markets for Check Point

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

30.11%chance

687291876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5722

3714

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5%chance

3418393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10979

10641

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

25.81%chance

64148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

590

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

19.03%chance

143566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2063

485

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

212

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.05%chance

11895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

767

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.19%chance

12853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1696

590

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.57%chance

10851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Will Litecoin either drop below $50 or exceed $150 before the end of 2026?

Dec 13, 1:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.52%chance

2500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4180

3259

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

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