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Prediction markets for CheckPoint

When will gpt-4.1 become unavailable?

Jan 22, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93689

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2026

86

86

85

84

84

84

21

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

10.76%chance

293558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

71783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

10

Fatal attack preventable by TSA shoe screening before 2030?

Jul 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.44%chance

211308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

529

19

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

7421

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

82

66

66

46

45

41

28

10

Will Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?

Feb 16, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.84%chance

7177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

By 2030, will the FDA approve any drug in combination with a checkpoint blockade therapy that substantially reduces immune escape?

Nov 18, 2:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

129

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