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Prediction markets for CheckPoint

When will gpt-4.1 become unavailable?

Jan 22, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93279

OptionProbability

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

86

84

81

79

74

43

21

Fatal attack preventable by TSA shoe screening before 2030?

Jul 12, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.44%chance

211308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

529

19

Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?

Mar 8, 4:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

251266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

845

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?

Jan 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.54%chance

5652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

62

Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 83% on SWE-bench verified?

Jan 21, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.66%chance

5201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

By 2030, will the FDA approve any drug in combination with a checkpoint blockade therapy that substantially reduces immune escape?

Nov 18, 2:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

129

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