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Prediction markets for chess

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.85%chance

1981559965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1804

1736

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.77%chance

18391290866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4973

3783

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369428

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68142589

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

OpenAI o4

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

DeepSeek-V4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

85

82

80

77

62

41

36

35

29

25

23

17

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will chess be solved by 2100?

Nov 18, 10:58 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

45.38%chance

598351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

847

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2025?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.93%chance

305283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5711

1071

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

142032

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2093

1897

Chess will be solved by the year..

Feb 10, 6:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

191688

OptionProbability

2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

61

54

51

47

38

30

21

15

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

Will Gotham Chess (Levy Rozman) join Manifold before the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 2:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.73%chance

14784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

943

Chess with queen odds solved by 2040?

Jan 25, 2:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.29%chance

14622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

911

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