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Top stories

Chinese Warship Hits Own Coast Guard in Scarborough Shoal Pursuit

Chinese Warship Hits Own Coast Guard in Scarborough Shoal Pursuit

Authors

75

11 months ago

Prediction markets for China Coast Guard

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.2%chance

323242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3345

299

China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026

Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM

7.21%chance

17630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20%chance

13291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

62

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

36.55%chance

9152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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