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Top stories

Chinese Warship Hits Own Coast Guard in Scarborough Shoal Pursuit

Chinese Warship Hits Own Coast Guard in Scarborough Shoal Pursuit

Authors

75

9 months ago

Prediction markets for China Coast Guard

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.4%chance

252024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

443

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20%chance

13291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

62

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

36.64%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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