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Prediction markets for Chinese American

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Jan 2, 7:49 AMJan 15, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

112160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

643

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be Chinese strikes on American soil?

Dec 18, 2:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11386

OptionProbability

Yes - Contiguous United States

Yes - Pacific Territories

Yes - Hawaii and Alaska

No

84

74

55

20

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20%chance

13291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

62

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.35%chance

7196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

65

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will Chinese naval units outclass American naval units in direct combat?

May 4, 2:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.67%chance

11154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

169

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

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