Chinese goods News

US tariff rate on Chinese goods at end of 2025?

Apr 3, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5944644

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

YES

1024

957

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

24.94%chance

443462

OptionVotes

YES

1550

726

Tariffs on China by EOY?

May 13, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13826

Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025?

May 6, 3:12 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

6.7%chance

18494

OptionVotes

YES

373

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

YES

1104

925

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

Apr 13, 5:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15228

OptionProbability

Trump understands some aspects but misunderstands the broader economic consequences

No, Trump is acting impulsively without understanding the economic implications

Trump is following advisors' strategies rather than his own understanding

Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty as a negotiation tactic

Yes

Yes, Trump has a clear strategy and understanding of his trade war goals

Trump understands the political benefits but not the economic impacts

Trump's understanding is evolving as the trade war progresses

Other

Jet Lag: the Game visits P.R.China before 2030?

Apr 29, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.35%chance

654

OptionVotes

YES

119

Chinese goods News

Prediction markets for Chinese goods

Prediction markets for Chinese goods

Prediction markets for Chinese goods

US tariff rate on Chinese goods at end of 2025?

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Tariffs on China by EOY?

Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

Jet Lag: the Game visits P.R.China before 2030?

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