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Prediction markets for Chinese language

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

132054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates

Aug 24, 12:33 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

8.57%chance

201292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2188

800

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.71%chance

19562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.74%chance

11445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?

May 18, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Mandarin Chinese translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:22 PMJan 1, 4:20 PM

1110

OptionProbability

No translation is published before 2028

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

32

17

17

17

8

8

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Should I try learning Latin?

Feb 10, 7:18 PM

90

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