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Prediction markets for Chinese language

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

158573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates

Aug 24, 12:33 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

8.57%chance

201292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2188

800

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.14%chance

131024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1916

838

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.92%chance

16739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will Magical Girl Witch Trials be nominated for an award at The Game Awards?

Sep 30, 8:06 AMNov 10, 6:30 PM

29.05%chance

7115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

76

6

6

6

6

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

985

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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