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Prediction markets for Chinese language

What universities will I get accepted into?

Dec 15, 10:31 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

5710158

OptionProbability

Drexel

UMD

Purdue

UC Davis

UIUC

UC Irvine

Georgia Tech

Cornell

UPenn

UC Berkeley

Carnegie Mellon University

Princeton

MIT

94

88

80

59

56

56

49

44

30

24

18

13

10

California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates

Aug 24, 12:33 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

8.57%chance

201292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2188

800

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

10409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Mandarin Chinese translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:22 PMJan 1, 4:20 PM

1110

OptionProbability

No translation is published before 2028

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

32

17

17

17

8

8

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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