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Prediction markets for Chinese language

What universities will I get accepted into?

Dec 15, 10:31 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

6412382

OptionProbability

MIT

Purdue

Drexel

UMD

Georgia Tech

Cornell

UC Davis

Princeton

UC Irvine

UC Berkeley

UPenn

Carnegie Mellon University

UIUC

100

100

100

83

53

46

37

30

29

22

19

16

0

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

91724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

435

California allows non-alphanumeric characters in plates

Aug 24, 12:33 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

8.57%chance

201292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2188

800

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.36%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

CCP AGI‑Pilled by 2027?

Dec 11, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

10409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Mandarin Chinese translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:22 PMJan 1, 4:20 PM

1110

OptionProbability

No translation is published before 2028

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

32

17

17

17

8

8

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Should I try learning Latin?

Feb 10, 7:18 PM

90

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