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Prediction markets for Chinese New Year

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

32.2%chance

377117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

689

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

809

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.51%chance

104498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

Will Alex get into a high tier UC

Dec 15, 10:40 AMJun 30, 10:39 AM

73.27%chance

152194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

2

Will Trump tariff Canada 100%

Jan 24, 2:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.57%chance

15533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

412

24

Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?

Jun 5, 12:15 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

34.91%chance

11530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

732

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.04%chance

7235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.62%chance

8111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

32

Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?

May 4, 5:15 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

27.89%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

73

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