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Prediction markets for Chinese New Year

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

6.58%chance

3811521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3767

265

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

Will a new social media app surpass TikTok in monthly users before 2027?”

Mar 21, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.4%chance

104505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

466

21

Will Alex get into a high tier UC

Dec 15, 10:40 AMJun 30, 10:39 AM

73.27%chance

152194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

2

Will Trump tariff Canada 100%

Jan 24, 2:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

17622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?

Jun 5, 12:15 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

34.58%chance

12540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1375

727

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

11383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.66%chance

7250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?

May 4, 5:15 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

13.37%chance

2151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

49

Will a Chinese Airliner Break the Airbus/Boeing Duopoly Before 2030?

Dec 26, 8:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.62%chance

8111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

32

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