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Prediction markets for Chipped

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.86%chance

26733230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

2075

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9023704

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

Other

70

11

6

5

3

3

3

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.29%chance

12119248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15069

7649

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.08%chance

3315660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12750

7843

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

191779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Will I personally know someone with a Neuralink or other brain chip implant by the end of 2032?

Apr 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.89%chance

29694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2157

1925

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.72%chance

6541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Chip chief Johny Srouji leaves Apple for another company by 2027?

Dec 7, 1:59 AMDec 31, 6:00 AM

51.9%chance

2254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

963

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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