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Prediction markets for Chipped

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.37%chance

26533167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3059

2057

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8719354

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

Other

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

67

11

6

6

5

3

3

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.13%chance

11518640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15117

7622

Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?

Feb 15, 11:05 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

35.39%chance

3511554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?

May 13, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.6%chance

174959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

967

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

9680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

804

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.72%chance

6541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Will a top-100 chess player accuse another top-100 player of cheating at chess using a brain chip by EOY 2034 ?

Apr 20, 6:12 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

34.81%chance

12513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

871

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

45.87%chance

3201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

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