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Prediction markets for Chipped

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.25%chance

26933697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3470

1943

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9331398

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

AMD

Google

Other

Intel

85

5

3

2

2

2

1

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

4522705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11182

8943

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.58%chance

12319399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14979

7700

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.29%chance

211908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

Will I personally know someone with a Neuralink or other brain chip implant by the end of 2032?

Apr 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.55%chance

31810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

1882

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

49.45%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

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