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Prediction markets for Chokepoint

Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

May 5, 7:26 AMOct 1, 12:00 PM

99.19%chance

617384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3035

1909

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.64%chance

231892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

Apr 21, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

261029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?

Aug 9, 8:46 AMOct 1, 11:00 PM

1.31%chance

10977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

60

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19791

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

90

7

1

1

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

48.17%chance

16737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

378

315

Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?

Aug 20, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will IMF PortWatch show a Strait of Hormuz 7-day transit average of 15 or more on any date through Oct 15, 2026?

Aug 15, 12:02 AMOct 15, 11:59 PM

11.16%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

69

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

Will the Strait of Malacca be blockaded anytime in the next 10 years?

Jun 25, 11:18 PMJun 25, 11:16 PM

30%chance

527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

65

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