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Prediction markets for Chokepoint

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.81%chance

231890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17505

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

83

12

2

2

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

39.52%chance

12416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

384

324

Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

Apr 21, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.75%chance

12360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

May 5, 7:26 AMJun 4, 7:26 AM

67.26%chance

446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

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