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Prediction markets for Chokepoint

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

171910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

374

Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?

Jan 18, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.64%chance

231892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?

Apr 21, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.42%chance

271318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20872

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

95

3

1

1

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

41.12%chance

16792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

334

Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?

Aug 20, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

11459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

Will the Strait of Malacca be blockaded anytime in the next 10 years?

Jun 25, 11:18 PMJun 25, 11:16 PM

30%chance

527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

65

Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri ON MANIFOLDS by EOy2029?

Jul 11, 8:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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