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Prediction markets for Christianity

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.76%chance

192416010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3580

964

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

7%chance

10733581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

679

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM

27.11%chance

9615115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9810

3672

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4%chance

5412487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

963

955

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

15.86%chance

418313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

19.29%chance

555029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

243

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

Feb 10, 1:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10%chance

553128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

100

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?

Aug 14, 5:41 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM

87.35%chance

72286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2628

381

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.71%chance

32050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3050

328

Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.5%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

969

Will the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?

Apr 14, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

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