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Prediction markets for Christmas Eve

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10626

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

63

59

55

50

40

30

8

United Kingdom (or successor) has written codified constitution by Christmas Eve midnight 2034?

Sep 16, 7:31 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

9.6%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

33

Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?

May 25, 4:39 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

9.04%chance

2210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

55

TV presenter Jonathan Ross differentiates his name before midnight Christmas Eve 2026?

Jan 9, 6:22 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

6182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?

Jul 3, 7:16 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

21.52%chance

10176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Hague Invasion Act invoked before Midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Oct 26, 10:34 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

J. D. Vance join the SSPX in a public manner before Christmas Eve 2028?

Jul 1, 9:17 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

99

Will US refuse gold repatriation before Christmas Eve midnight 2028?

Oct 22, 7:20 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

33.17%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Process formally started to overhaul the Rescue Agreement [for astronauts] before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Nov 6, 8:44 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Aug 19, 5:30 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Senate or Congressional hearings dealing specifically/exclusively with Wikipedia/WMF by UTC 23:59 Christmas Eve 2027?

Oct 7, 4:06 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

58.2%chance

218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

PROMISE (OPTIMISM replica of Perseverence Mars Rover) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029?

Jul 3, 3:07 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

28.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

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