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Prediction markets for Chronicle

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

394973

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Odyssey

Claude Ballad

Claude Epic

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Canon

Claude Requiem

Claude Chronicle

Claude Parable

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Legend

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

31

24

23

18

18

18

16

16

16

15

14

12

11

10

9

4

2

1

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1188

662

Is the “It’s Sugar!” in San Francisco’s downtown a money laundering front for the Taliban?

Aug 29, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.73%chance

232370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2562

856

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Feb 23, 10:11 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

151606

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2026

2024

2025

73

15

9

1

1

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

274

Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?

Jan 2, 9:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11627

OptionProbability

Later than 2033 or never

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2027

2026

2025

36

9

9

9

9

9

9

6

3

1

Will Doors of Stone (Kingkiller Chronicles) be released before January 1st 2028?

Dec 1, 5:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.23%chance

15606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

67

How many Creeper World games will there be at the beginning of 2030?

Sep 25, 2:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6491

OptionProbability

7

8

6

9

10 or more

5

64

20

8

6

2

1

Will the SF-Oakland Bay Bridge receive additional physical protection due to the FSK Bridge collapse?

Mar 28, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.41%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

126

Will Patrick Rothfuss's "Kingkiller Chronicles" books be turned into a TV series by 2030?

Mar 16, 8:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.76%chance

5116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

93

Which series will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM

171

OptionProbability

The Chronicles of Osreth - Katherine Addison

Old Man's War - John Scalzi

White Space - Elizabeth Bear

The Craft Wars - Max Gladstone

October Daye - Seanan McGuire

Emily Wilde - Heather Fawcett

26

24

16

13

12

9

Daniel Lurie runs for governor of California before 2035

Nov 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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