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OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
99
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4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Callum Turner
Jack Lowden
Josh O'Connor
Jack Barton
Other
Henry Cavill
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Robert Pattinson
George Clooney
Nicholas Hoult
Jack O Connell
George MacKay
Jason Isaacs
Keanu Reeves
Henry Golding
Tom Hardy
Idris Elba
Taron Egerton
Cillian Murphy
Tom Hiddleston
Regé-Jean Page
Lashana Lynch
Sam Heughan
Dev Patel
Theo James
Damson Idris
James Norton
Daryl McCormack
Paapa Essiedu
Tom Cruise
Brad Pitt
Matt Damon
Kingsley Ben-Adir
Richard Madden
Paul Mescal
Sam Claflin
Jacob Elordi
John Boyega
Pierce Brosnan
Sope Dirisu
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Robert Aramayo
Liam Hemsworth
Andrew Garfield
Will Poulter
Miles Teller
Aidan Turner
Tom Hopper
Lucien Laviscount
Harry Styles
Luke Evans
Timothé Chalamet
Tom Holland
Harris Dickinson
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Anthony Boyle
Emma Watson
Millie Boby Brown
Pedro Pascal
Arty Froushan
Arty Froushan
Tom francis
Patrick Gibson
54
20
6
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Callum Turner
Jack Lowden
Josh O Connor
Other
Robert Pattinson
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Harris Dickinson
George MacKay
Jack Barton
Jack O Connell
Nicholas Hoult
Daryl McCormack
Sam Claflin
Theo James
Damson Idris
Paapa Essiedu
Henry Cavill
James Norton
Regé-Jean Page
Cillian Murphy
Tom Hardy
Charlie Hunnam
Dev Patel
Aaron Pierre
Paddy Gibson
Jacob Elordi
Tom Holland
Anthony Boyle
Tom francis
Elliot Page
Paul Mescal
Keanu Reeves
54
23
8
6
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Callum Turner
Jack Lowden
Josh O‘Connor
Jack Barton
Jack O Connell
Other
Nicholas Hoult
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Henry Cavill
Theo James
Aaron Pierre
Harris Dickinson
James Norton
Sam C. Wilson
Scott Rose-Marsh
Tom Hardy
Cillian Murphy
Michael Fassbender
Tom Hiddleston
Jacob Elordi
Tom Holland
Matthew Lewis
Louis Partridge
Tom francis
47
29
9
4
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Callum Turner
Jack Lowden
Other
Josh O’Connor
Jack Barton
Henry Cavil
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Jack O’Connell
George MacKay
Idris Elba
Tom Hardy
Tom Hiddleston
Cillian Murphy
Paul Mescal
Theo James
Pierce Brosnan
Harris Dickinson
Tom Holland
Jacob Elordi
Tom francis
45
25
12
11
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Callum Turner
Jack O’connell
Josh O Connor
Other
Jack barton
George MacKay
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Tom francis
Tom Hardy
Rege-Jean Page
Richard Madden
Idris Elba
Henry Cavill
James Norton
Cillian Murphy
Jonathan Bailey
Tom Hiddlestom
Tom Hiddleston
Aidan Turner
Lashana Lynch
Jack Lowden
Sope Dirisu
Daryl McCormack
Kingsley Ben-Adir
Damson Idris
Dev Patel
John Boyega
Jacob Elordi
Sam Claflin
Theo James
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Nicholas Hoult
Paapa Essiedu
Daniel Kaluuya
Paul Mescal
Tom Holland
57
14
12
6
5
4
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Robert Downey Jr
Cillian Murphy
Ryan Coogler
Timothee Chalamet
Ralph Fiennes
Michelle Williams
Bradley Cooper
Willem Dafoe
Amy Adams
Tom Cruise
Edward Norton
Zendaya
Glenn Close
Michelle Pfeiffer
Naomi Watts
Michael Keaton
Steve Buscemi
Paul Giamatti
Matt Damon
Laura Linney
Mark Ruffalo
Colin Farrell
Sarah Silverman
Johnny Depp
John Malkovich
Jim Carrey
Woody Harrelson
Annette Bening
Samuel L Jackson
Sigourney Weaver
Bill Murray
Peter O'Toole
100
100
91
86
80
73
69
67
64
60
59
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
34
34
34
34
27
27
22
4
OptionProbability
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >90% two weeks after release
Scored by Ludwig Goransson
Shot entirely on IMAX cameras
July release date (for the US)
Reported budget (on Wikipedia) >$200 million
Rated R
Nominated for Best Picture (Oscars)
Worldwide gross >$1 billion
Longer than 2h50m runtime
Matt Damon is in the cast
Original story
A gun is shown on screen
Cillian Murphy is in the cast
Released in 2029
Passes the Bechdel Test
Tom Holland is in the cast
A smartphone is shown on screen
Worldwide gross >$1.5 billion
Wins Best Picture (Oscars)
Scored by Hans Zimmer
75
74
73
73
61
59
57
55
50
50
50
48
47
45
41
34
31
28
22
17
OptionProbability
Paul Bettany
Other
Cillian Murphy
Ralph Fiennes
Matt Smith
Tom Hiddleston
Tom Hiddleston
44
29
17
5
2
2
2