Civil Appeal News

How many ICE agents will be convicted for crimes committed during the Trump administration?

Jan 22, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

334293

OptionProbability

200-299

Other

100-199

50-99

25-49

0-2

3-9

10-24

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133926

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.33%chance

143045

OptionVotes

YES

1405

433

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

1188

841

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

311019

OptionVotes

YES

377

What is true about Tate brothers for 2026?

Dec 22, 8:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13981

OptionProbability

Andrew Tate will be charged for Human trafficking in Romania or UK

Tristan Tate charged with human trafficking in Romania or UK

Andrew Tate returns to UK to face criminal charges in 2026

Andrew Tate convicted in UK civil trial for sexual abuse or coercive control

Andrew Tate appeals UK civil trial verdict in 2026

Andrew Tate faces new trial for match fixing after loosing in front of Chase Demoor

Andrew Tate receives prison sentence in 2026

Tristan Tate receives prison sentence in 2026

Andrew Tate flees to US

Andrew Tate remains in United States throughout 2026

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

Dec 8, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14560

OptionProbability

[Consumer Privacy] A.T. v. OpenAI LP (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Sancton v. OpenAI Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2023)

[Copyright] Chabon v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Copyright] Silverman v. OpenAI, Inc. (N.D. Cal. 2023)

[Libel] Walters v. OpenAI, L.L.C. (Ga. Super. Ct. 2023)

What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?

May 11, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

3170

OptionProbability

Settles out of court

NYT wins

EEOC wins

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

May 15, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.62%chance

5146

OptionVotes

YES

211

Will Michele Spagnuolo be convicted

May 28, 1:27 PMMay 1, 1:22 PM

66.27%chance

8109

OptionVotes

YES

140

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Apr 24, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

YES

116

Civil Appeal News

Prediction markets for Civil Appeal

Prediction markets for Civil Appeal

Prediction markets for Civil Appeal

How many ICE agents will be convicted for crimes committed during the Trump administration?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

What is true about Tate brothers for 2026?

Which of the following lawsuits will prevail against OpenAI?

What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

Will Michele Spagnuolo be convicted

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

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