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Prediction markets for Claims Market

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

540866847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30477

3286

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

19.36%chance

156197729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204080

49000

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

22.09%chance

372186921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2268

1196

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

81796

26531

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31489

3182

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

13.21%chance

6824805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25481

4296

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10159

9844

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.76%chance

273774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2680

374

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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