Claims Market News

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.52%chance

410581638

OptionVotes

YES

15098

6632

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.95%chance

812504817

OptionVotes

YES

57878

10544

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

19%chance

368182945

OptionVotes

YES

2566

1119

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

112159

17112

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1925293

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

It will have four playable characters on release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.85%chance

1423446

OptionVotes

YES

30273

3309

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

16.41%chance

6821620

OptionVotes

YES

22296

4846

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

15703

6520

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

YES

15156

6598

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

98464

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

10173

3993

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.06%chance

182664

OptionVotes

YES

2487

403

Claims Market News

Prediction markets for Claims Market

Prediction markets for Claims Market

Prediction markets for Claims Market

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

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