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Prediction markets for Claims Market

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.84%chance

500765404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26069

3841

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.09%chance

827508712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57325

10606

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

25.27%chance

371183673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2023

1272

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.51%chance

100162243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108965

17813

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

26.14%chance

119141997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168086

59493

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.04%chance

1723720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29965

3343

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

16.41%chance

6821620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22296

4846

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

45.35%chance

3510099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10977

9110

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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