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Prediction markets for Clarity

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

67.23%chance

191272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

698

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.15%chance

5241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

CLARITY Act signed into law by December 31, 2025

Nov 16, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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