Clarity News

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.87%chance

7597714

OptionVotes

YES

11449

1229

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

7878

2845

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)

Jun 12, 9:34 AMNov 3, 5:00 AM

296771

OptionProbability

There is a new Prime Minister of the UK

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The Kalshi "American Power Index" favors Democrats

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Israel has a new Prime Minister

An NFL game ends in a tie

Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race

Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian

A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement

A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione

A snap election is called in the UK

Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House

A federal government shutdown occurs

The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne

The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law

Pope Leo XIV is no longer pope

The DC Home Rule Act is repealed

A one point safety happens in the NFL

Legislative filibuster is abolished

The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland

Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked

Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives

Charles III is no longer king

The UK Labour Party selects its next leader by ballot of its members

100

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

134384

OptionVotes

YES

2147

466

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

1657

1487

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

151983

OptionVotes

YES

1703

588

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

YES

1154

867

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

1173

596

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.15%chance

8356

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

YES

1079

952

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CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)

Clarity Act will pass in September

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

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