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Prediction markets for Clarity

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.3%chance

252966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5535

4406

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

121870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

543

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?

Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM

66.35%chance

221502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

712

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

56.9%chance

6281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Mattias Skjelmose leaves LIDL-Trek before the end of the 2026 UCI season?

Dec 12, 5:45 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

15%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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