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Prediction markets for Clarity

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.25%chance

88136210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17850

564

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.02%chance

6713460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11406

5078

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

748854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

1201

Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?

Nov 8, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.61%chance

407091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.79%chance

162171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

606

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

59.17%chance

10666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

65.28%chance

14330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

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