CLARITY Act News

YES

YES

There is a new Prime Minister of the UK

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The Kalshi "American Power Index" favors Democrats

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

An NFL game ends in a tie

Construction of Trump's triumphal arch begins

Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian

The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement

A federal government shutdown occurs

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne

Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

A snap election is called in the UK

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

The DC Home Rule Act is repealed

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House

The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law

The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law

Israel has a new Prime Minister

Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives

A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione

A one point safety happens in the NFL

The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland

Legislative filibuster is abolished

Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked

Charles III is no longer king

Pope Leo XIV is no longer pope

YES

Won’t leave before 2030

2029

2025

2026

2027

NO