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Prediction markets for Classic

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

207674

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Praggnanandhaa R

D Gukesh

Arjun Erigaisi

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Alireza Firouzja

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Anish Giri

Richard Rapport

Vidit Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Hans Niemann

Other

29

17

16

16

9

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

7.93%chance

313791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3121

513

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.51%chance

493610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

872

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026?

Nov 19, 4:22 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.12%chance

21974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

893

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.24%chance

15677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

959

Will the Maryland Cycling Classic return in 2025?

May 7, 10:02 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

96.13%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

498

20

Will the 9yo FM Faustino Oro beat the sitting world champion or the highest rating player in classical by 2026 year end?

Sep 23, 2:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12.19%chance

6220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

131

Will someone find an efficient algorithm for calculating DIscrete Logarithms on a classical computer?

Apr 7, 2:29 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

21.89%chance

8181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

97

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Classic Physique class)

Oct 29, 9:22 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Mike SommerField

Other

Urs Kalecinski

Breon Ansley

Ramon Rocha Queiroz

Jose Manuel Munoz

Michael Daboul

Wesley Vissers

Niall Darwen

Keone Pearson

26

19

14

11

9

4

4

4

4

4

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

45.68%chance

427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

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