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Prediction markets for Classics

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

7.93%chance

313791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3121

513

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.4%chance

493670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

838

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026?

Nov 19, 4:22 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.12%chance

21974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

893

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.24%chance

15677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

959

Will the Maryland Cycling Classic return in 2025?

May 7, 10:02 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

96.13%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

498

20

What will be the age of the 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic winner?

Jul 31, 8:02 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

4297

OptionProbability

3yo

4yo

5yo

6yo

7yo

8yo or older

35

23

13

10

10

9

Will the 9yo FM Faustino Oro beat the sitting world champion or the highest rating player in classical by 2026 year end?

Sep 23, 2:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12.19%chance

6220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

131

Will someone find an efficient algorithm for calculating DIscrete Logarithms on a classical computer?

Apr 7, 2:29 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

21.89%chance

8181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

97

Who will win the the 2025 Olympia bodybuilding competition (Classic Physique class)

Oct 29, 9:22 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Mike SommerField

Other

Urs Kalecinski

Breon Ansley

Ramon Rocha Queiroz

Jose Manuel Munoz

Michael Daboul

Wesley Vissers

Niall Darwen

Keone Pearson

26

19

14

11

9

4

4

4

4

4

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

44.78%chance

529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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