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Top stories

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

Authors

49

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.45%chance

242150732

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.01%chance

7842197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33880

2952

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1712257

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

5

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.18%chance

676570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1479

344

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

161881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

668

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

Mar 6, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.58%chance

9226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

109

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

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