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Prediction markets for Claude AI
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%chance
8138437
OptionVotes
27819
3071
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM
8.51%chance
7431502
OptionVotes
32786
3050
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
1411132
OptionProbability
62
53
43
29
10
5
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
OptionVotes
1202
578
Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?
Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.09%chance
151757
OptionVotes
1600
625
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?
May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
28.43%chance
11712
OptionVotes
1414
776
OptionVotes
1571
740
Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?
Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM
39.02%chance
3250
OptionVotes
1250
800
OptionVotes
175
109