Claude API News

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

YES

7381

168

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

394973

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Odyssey

Claude Ballad

Claude Epic

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Canon

Claude Requiem

Claude Chronicle

Claude Parable

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Legend

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?

Mar 27, 4:39 AMJan 1, 5:29 AM

493687

OptionProbability

It scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)

It scores at least 55% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)

It will only be available on the max plan and/or the API

It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release

It will cost at least 3x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 currently does on the API

It will cost at least 5x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 does per output token on the API

It will implement parallel test-time compute (like GPT pro series) rather than just being a larger model than Opus

100

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

253085

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

14.33%chance

121828

OptionVotes

YES

2445

409

Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?

Jun 22, 9:36 PMJun 27, 11:59 PM

32%chance

221231

OptionVotes

YES

146

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6805

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

32%chance

21800

OptionVotes

YES

154

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Jun 21, 3:22 AMSep 1, 12:00 AM

24.18%chance

17235

OptionVotes

YES

168

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

1143

875

Claude API News

Prediction markets for Claude API

Prediction markets for Claude API

Prediction markets for Claude API

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

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