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Prediction markets for Claude API

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

304443748

OptionProbability

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-04

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-05

Before 2026-02-06

85

82

70

37

17

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

Anthropic's Claude 5 released before 4/20

Feb 12, 12:21 AMApr 20, 11:59 PM

17.06%chance

394520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2205

454

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.37%chance

222501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

954

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 in March 2026?

Mar 3, 10:16 AMApr 3, 3:00 AM

1.28%chance

121811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

35

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6755

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

3

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

91

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will I be able to connect my Quickbooks online data to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude before 2027?

Jan 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.96%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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