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Prediction markets for Claude Computer Use

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7381

168

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

15.39%chance

121728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Anthropic explicitly ban competing models from using Claude Code before July 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 2:30 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.84%chance

17495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

83

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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