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Prediction markets for Claude for Government

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

In which months will Claude be available in my work's model picker?

Feb 28, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41046

OptionProbability

March

April

May

June

September

December

100

100

100

78

74

74

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 3:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.16%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

950

Claude outages caused by the U.S. Government?

Mar 2, 4:51 PMMar 8, 6:59 AM

14.33%chance

5538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028?

Sep 13, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.49%chance

8334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?

Jul 1, 12:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.08%chance

13170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

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