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Prediction markets for Claude for Government

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Jun 16, 8:04 AMJun 30, 6:59 AM

16.74%chance

14932109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6674

946

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

Jun 17, 1:36 AMJul 16, 6:59 AM

42.53%chance

454720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

860

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?

Jun 18, 1:03 AMAug 1, 6:59 AM

65.81%chance

263996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

721

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

15.39%chance

121728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?

Jun 13, 9:29 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.25%chance

221080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

In which months will Claude be available in my work's model picker?

Feb 28, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41046

OptionProbability

March

April

May

June

September

December

100

100

100

78

74

74

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Claude outages caused by the U.S. Government?

Mar 2, 4:51 PMMar 8, 6:59 AM

14.33%chance

5538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

How many days in July 2026 will the Claude Status Page report an incident for core systems?

Jun 16, 7:57 PMJul 31, 8:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

18 - 19

16 - 17

0 - 15

20 - 31

34

31

18

18

Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 3:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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