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Prediction markets for Claude for Work
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.29%chance
216832
OptionVotes
3327
301
Will Anthropic lose the Authors’ Copyright Class Action Lawsuit by end of 2026?
Jul 26, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4%chance
155250
OptionVotes
6041
455
Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?
May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13%chance
231261
OptionVotes
1713
838
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.77%chance
9913
OptionVotes
1311
763
OptionProbability
63
59
55
52
48
43
29
20
14
7
OptionProbability
69
11
11
3
2
2
1
1
Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.45%chance
22500
OptionVotes
989
987
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.11%chance
19383
OptionVotes
1087
962
2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?
Apr 9, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
75%chance
17334
OptionVotes
173
58
OptionVotes
147
68
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82