OptionProbability
Claude 4.5 Sonnet
ChatGPT-5
DeepSeek V3.1 Chat
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Qwen 3 Max
Grok 4
32
27
19
14
6
2
Daniel Kokotajlo
Zvi Mowshowitz
Nate Soares
Rob Miles
Scott Alexander
roon
Neel Nanda
j⧉nus
Peter Wildeford
Scott Sumner
Carl Shulman
Paul Christiano
Richard Ngo
Wei Dai
Holly Elmore
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, and/or Elon Musk
100
68
67
52
50
34
28
25
24
23
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1163
860
Claude Max
ChatGPT Pro
51
49
