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Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

29.18%chance

111776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

642

When will Fable return to the Pro plan?

Jul 18, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

121067

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2026

Before Sept 2026

Before July 21 2026

Before Aug 2026

67

42

0

0

Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?

Aug 1, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.89%chance

12778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

47

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.88%chance

7160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will any mainstream LLM (Claude, Deepseek,chatgp) recommend (w/o prompting) ppl useofflabel GLP1s 2 live longer by 2028?

Sep 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

I SWITCHED FROM CHATGPT PRO TO CLAUDE MAX TODAY. WILL I BE HAPPIER WITH THE RESULTS?

Jun 21, 3:26 AM

120

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