Claude Pro News

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

6.1%chance

8449885

OptionVotes

YES

39234

2549

Claude Fable 5 American reenablement prop bets

Jun 14, 2:51 PMJul 6, 2:42 AM

222694

OptionProbability

The same version of Fable available to Americans is available in most of the world

Fable is available with safeguards more stringent than previously (even for Americans)

Fable is available to both Americans and non-Americans with distinct safeguards for American and non-American users

Fable is available, but not on the API

Fable is available, but not in Claude Code

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

141961

OptionVotes

YES

1845

542

When will Claude Fable return to Pro

Jun 9, 8:59 PMDec 31, 9:58 PM

171928

OptionProbability

Before January 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Before July 2026

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

15.39%chance

121728

OptionVotes

YES

2345

426

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

6532

OptionVotes

YES

1532

653

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

1020

885

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1001

994

Will any mainstream LLM (Claude, Deepseek,chatgp) recommend (w/o prompting) ppl useofflabel GLP1s 2 live longer by 2028?

Sep 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

I SWITCHED FROM CHATGPT PRO TO CLAUDE MAX TODAY. WILL I BE HAPPIER WITH THE RESULTS?

Jun 21, 3:26 AM

120

Claude Pro News

Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Claude Fable 5 American reenablement prop bets

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

When will Claude Fable return to Pro

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will any mainstream LLM (Claude, Deepseek,chatgp) recommend (w/o prompting) ppl useofflabel GLP1s 2 live longer by 2028?

I SWITCHED FROM CHATGPT PRO TO CLAUDE MAX TODAY. WILL I BE HAPPIER WITH THE RESULTS?

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