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Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.73%chance

111223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

How will my vibe-coded rewrite of a SoTA genomics program perform?

Jan 7, 9:14 PMMay 5, 7:47 PM

17268

OptionProbability

More than 3% worse, less than 10% worse

More than 10% worse

Within 3%, better or worse

Re-write is too non-functional to compute accuracy

More than 3% better

32

28

17

12

11

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will any mainstream LLM (Claude, Deepseek,chatgp) recommend (w/o prompting) ppl useofflabel GLP1s 2 live longer by 2028?

Sep 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

I SWITCHED FROM CHATGPT PRO TO CLAUDE MAX TODAY. WILL I BE HAPPIER WITH THE RESULTS?

Jun 21, 3:26 AM

120

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