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Prediction markets for Claude Pro

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

Aug 24, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.39%chance

345784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

568

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89.45%chance

265266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2912

343

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

283763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

605

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271487

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepSeek

Meta

xAI

Moonshot AI

Z.ai

Other

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

46

30

19

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

21260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2260

816

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.03%chance

4568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

42

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.88%chance

7160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

45

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will any mainstream LLM (Claude, Deepseek,chatgp) recommend (w/o prompting) ppl useofflabel GLP1s 2 live longer by 2028?

Sep 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

I SWITCHED FROM CHATGPT PRO TO CLAUDE MAX TODAY. WILL I BE HAPPIER WITH THE RESULTS?

Jun 21, 3:26 AM

120

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