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Prediction markets for Claude Sonnet

Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?

Feb 1, 10:04 AMFeb 8, 10:03 AM

31.67%chance

399514518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

333

Will the next release of Claude be Sonnet 4.7?

Dec 16, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.52%chance

4420567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5235

191

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Jan 4, 3:48 PMFeb 28, 3:48 PM

39.92%chance

417971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

815

Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon

Dec 18, 12:39 AMMar 2, 12:37 AM

276874

OptionProbability

Other

4h - 4h30

5h - 5h30

4h30 - 5h

5h30 - 6h

3h - 3h30

6h - 6h30

3h30 - 4h

< 2h

2h - 2h30

2h30 - 3h

37

12

12

11

8

6

6

5

1

1

1

Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 2, 1:04 PMMar 4, 11:59 PM

194873

OptionProbability

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

6h - 7h

9h - 10h

5h - 6h

4h - 5h

Other

3h - 4h

<3h

22

17

16

13

9

8

8

4

2

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 4.6 by February 15th?

Dec 29, 11:34 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

16%chance

454693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will Claude Sonnet 5 come out Wednesday February 4th?

Feb 4, 12:58 AMFeb 11, 11:59 PM

1%chance

242857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

302391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

731

Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?

Oct 27, 2:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

1%chance

102275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2475

47

Which of Grok 4.20, Gemini 3 Pro GA, GPT-5.3, and Claude Sonnet 5 will be released first?

Feb 2, 4:42 AMMar 30, 10:59 PM

211948

OptionProbability

Claude Sonnet 5

Gemini 3 Pro GA

Grok 4.20

GPT-5.3

87

7

4

3

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.14%chance

181314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1948

513

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

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