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Claude Sonnet News

September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 9:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

16744181

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)

Claude Opus 5.x

GPT-6

Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)

Claude Fable 5.x

DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)

Any Nvidia model

GPT-6 Sol

GPT-6 Luna

Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

Any Mistral Model

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Any model developed by fal Research

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

Claude Sonnet 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Fable 5.2

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

GPT-5.7

GPT-6 Terra

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

67

63

43

41

33

17

17

16

15

15

13

11

7

1

1

Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon

Dec 18, 12:39 AMDec 1, 12:37 AM

5314128

OptionProbability

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

8.5h - 9h

8h - 8.5h

Other

7.5h - 8h

12h - 13h

11h - 12h

3.5h - 4h

4.5h - 5h

5h - 5.5h

5.5h - 6h

6h - 6.5h

6.5h - 7h

7h - 7.5h

4h - 4.5h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

<2h

20

16

14

6

6

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 2, 1:04 PMNov 4, 1:00 AM

4311573

OptionProbability

Other

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

<3h

3h - 4h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

12h - 13h

13h - 14h

82

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

Feb 2, 1:06 PMOct 30, 10:59 PM

2211028

OptionProbability

Other

<4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395669

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Canon

Claude Parable

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Requiem

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

19

17

16

16

16

15

14

13

13

12

11

11

11

10

7

4

3

2

Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?

Feb 3, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.48%chance

191775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

414

24

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4 [metaculus]

Jul 30, 4:08 PMJul 1, 4:04 PM

91011

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

56

53

50

35

23

12

5

Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?

Sep 20, 3:58 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

21.72%chance

13909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon

May 30, 6:15 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

9625

OptionProbability

18h - 20h

20h - 22h

16h - 18h

22h - 24h

Other

14h - 16h

<8h

8h - 10h

10h - 12h

12h - 14h

31

23

13

11

7

4

3

3

3

3

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will Claude Sonnet 5 achieve a SOTA score on SciPredict?

Feb 3, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.27%chance

6254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

37

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

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