Clear Plus News

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

5723229

OptionProbability

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Democratic House and Senate

Republican House and Senate

Republican House, Democratic Senate

Other

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

57.01%chance

298365

OptionVotes

YES

1152

868

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

YES

1350

901

Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)

Dec 19, 6:06 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

123263

OptionProbability

Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

A public figure calls for the death penalty

Government seeks the death penalty

Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

Defense files motion to suppress evidence

Gag order imposed on case participants

Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

Defense requests change in venue

Mangione assaulted while in custody

Court grants competency evaluation

Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

Mangione attempts suicide

Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

100

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

242359

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031+

2025

STATISTICAL ANOMOLY - 27 points, 7 assists, 7 rebounds --- Will Lebron James ever have those stats in a single game?

Mar 20, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.65%chance

16588

OptionVotes

YES

471

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will the DPP have a majority in the Legislative Yuan on January 1st 2026?

Jun 28, 11:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

3135

OptionVotes

YES

219

Supreme Court ruling on 3,50€ file copying fee - Will B. win the Federal Administrative Court case?

Dec 19, 10:14 PMJan 25, 10:59 PM

64.35%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

106

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

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Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

STATISTICAL ANOMOLY - 27 points, 7 assists, 7 rebounds --- Will Lebron James ever have those stats in a single game?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will the DPP have a majority in the Legislative Yuan on January 1st 2026?

Supreme Court ruling on 3,50€ file copying fee - Will B. win the Federal Administrative Court case?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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