Clear Plus News

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

93.17%chance

459025

OptionVotes

YES

2289

807

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

275480

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2031+

2030

2026

2025

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Will Sanji have a nose bleed over ZaZa the Rain God/Nightmare?

May 14, 1:30 PMNov 15, 2:30 PM

35.28%chance

131138

OptionVotes

YES

1354

738

Will Donald Trump run for a third term

Feb 26, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

18680

OptionVotes

YES

213

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Sep 13, 11:16 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)

IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)

US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

By end of 2030, will AI therapy-matching be the main intake path for new mental-health patients in a developed country?

Oct 12, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46%chance

339

OptionVotes

YES

120

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will Sanji have a nose bleed over ZaZa the Rain God/Nightmare?

Will Donald Trump run for a third term

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

By end of 2030, will AI therapy-matching be the main intake path for new mental-health patients in a developed country?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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