Clear Plus News

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

7438196

OptionProbability

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Democratic House and Senate

Republican House and Senate

Republican House, Democratic Senate

Other

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

74.56%chance

369818

OptionVotes

YES

1712

584

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

YES

1350

901

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

253860

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031+

2025

Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)

Dec 19, 6:06 PMMay 31, 4:59 AM

123263

OptionProbability

Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

A public figure calls for the death penalty

Government seeks the death penalty

Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

Defense files motion to suppress evidence

Gag order imposed on case participants

Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

Defense requests change in venue

Mangione assaulted while in custody

Court grants competency evaluation

Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

Mangione attempts suicide

Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

100

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?

Jan 19, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6144

OptionProbability

Luis Inácio Lula da Silva

Romeu Zema

Flávio Bolsonaro

Tarcísio Freitas

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

Clear Plus News

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

Prediction markets for Clear Plus

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Latest stories