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Prediction markets for CLI

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.68%chance

533838789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7951

147

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

15495576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6005

3911

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.92%chance

29334138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3987

3107

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.42%chance

25317819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2329

1841

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1.08%chance

418556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2563

1147

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33253

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

December 2026 (or later)

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

15

14

14

13

8

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33088

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

January 2026

February 2026

16

15

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25992

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Cursor

Zed

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

33

22

15

11

9

5

4

0

0

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23798

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Gemini CLI

Codebuff

Other

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

82

8

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

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