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Prediction markets for CLI

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.67%chance

553921727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7954

146

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

15595688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5993

3912

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.69%chance

29334161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3999

3084

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64%chance

25317966

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2476

1753

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.91%chance

428664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3011

1143

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56226

OptionProbability

December 2026 (or later)

June 2026

July 2026

May 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

24

11

11

10

10

10

10

10

1

1

1

1

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271111

OptionProbability

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Zed

Cursor

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

39

14

13

10

10

9

3

0

0

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24803

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Pi

Other

Gemini CLI

Codebuff

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

77

9

4

4

2

2

1

1

1

0

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6216

6157

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