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Prediction markets for CLI

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.3%chance

553926462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9092

129

Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.61%chance

15595688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5993

3912

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.18%chance

29434211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3974

3134

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.4%chance

25518756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3256

1410

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

18.99%chance

12114248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2239

976

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.91%chance

428664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3011

1143

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56226

OptionProbability

December 2026 (or later)

June 2026

July 2026

May 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

24

11

11

10

10

10

10

10

1

1

1

1

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

838

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

291145

OptionProbability

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Zed

Other

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Cursor

Antigravity

Windsurf

Firebase Studio

52

11

10

10

7

6

3

0

0

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26829

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Hermes Agent

Other

Pi

Gemini CLI

Codebuff

OpenCode

Qwen Code

Cursor CLI

Warp

74

8

4

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

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