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Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Oct 31, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.05%chance

14490354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7083

3807

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.62%chance

29233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3852

3400

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.75%chance

15119264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

1594

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63%chance

24917210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2418

1787

Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045?

Apr 17, 3:47 PMDec 17, 9:59 PM

30.24%chance

11913486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

1210

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1%chance

387936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2753

1145

Will climate change wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jun 24, 10:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.36%chance

242774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

935

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

302129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

817

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Which AI code editor will be the most popular EOY2026?

May 6, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12520

OptionProbability

Visual Studio Code (w/ Github Copilot or any other built-in)

Cursor

Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)

Other

Windsurf

Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)

Zed

Firebase Studio

75

14

3

3

2

1

1

1

Which CLI coding agent will be the most popular EOY2026? [add answers]

Jun 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4110

OptionProbability

Claude Code

Codex CLI

Gemini CLI

OpenCode

Warp

Other

31

24

11

11

11

11

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