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Prediction markets for Click to Do

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?

Nov 13, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.59%chance

574197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

238

Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?

Sep 10, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.42%chance

413634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

213

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37%chance

193322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

1254

Will there be 100 million famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Jan 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.6%chance

293087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

1487

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.16%chance

231866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

920

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

38

34

17

11

Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Dec 29, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.22%chance

22897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

961

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will there be a jumping heel click emoji by the end of 2028?

Jun 28, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

8238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

58

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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