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Prediction markets for Climb

Will Silence be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?

May 22, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.4%chance

282095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1463

624

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

What grades will I climb this season?

Mar 14, 4:49 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

71249

OptionProbability

5.8

5.9

5.10a

5.10b

5.10c

95

90

71

50

33

Who will be the first person to climb a 5.16a/9c+ sport route?

Apr 30, 6:23 PMDec 31, 7:21 PM

7781

OptionProbability

Adam Ondra

Other

Seb Bouin

Jakob Schubert

37

28

18

18

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Janja Garnbret climbs Burden of Dreams by 23 October 2026?

Jun 2, 2:22 AMOct 23, 11:59 PM

31.79%chance

7470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

171

Will B.I.G. be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?

May 22, 10:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.51%chance

9444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

141

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5210

OptionProbability

Elias Iagnemma

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

60

11

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will I injure myself this climbing season?

Mar 15, 7:11 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

30.47%chance

9141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Will Jose Luis Ricon and Barton Rhodes go rock-climbing together by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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