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Prediction markets for Climb

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Will Silence be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?

May 22, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.93%chance

281793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

677

Who will be the first person to climb a 5.16a/9c+ sport route?

Apr 30, 6:23 PMDec 31, 7:21 PM

5760

OptionProbability

Adam Ondra

Seb Bouin

Jakob Schubert

Other

41

20

20

20

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Does DEET weaken climbing rope? (per HowNot2)

Oct 6, 2:17 AMAug 1, 2:12 AM

5734

OptionProbability

No: no statistically significant reduction

Yes: 0%-40% reduction

Not tested by question close

Yes: > 40% reduction

53

22

18

7

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Janja Garnbret climbs Burden of Dreams by 23 October 2026?

Jun 2, 2:22 AMOct 23, 11:59 PM

31.79%chance

7470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

171

Will B.I.G. be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?

May 22, 10:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.51%chance

9444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

141

Will DNA be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?

May 22, 10:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.12%chance

7297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

52

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5210

OptionProbability

Elias Iagnemma

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

60

11

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Will Jose Luis Ricon and Barton Rhodes go rock-climbing together by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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