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Prediction markets for Clones

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Will a previously extinct animal species be successfully cloned and brought back to life before 2035?

Jan 16, 11:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.03%chance

376995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

724

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

637

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

793

Will a human clone be born before the end of 2035?

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.8%chance

321770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

725

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

421737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

967

Will a cloned human baby be born before 2030

Apr 3, 3:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

361007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

969

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

874

What proportion of Ted Kaczynski clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Dec 9, 8:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

5500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?

Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

61.53%chance

23481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

912

Will GitHub support IPv6 for cloning by the end of 2026?

Dec 29, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

42.69%chance

12464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

863

Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception?

Sep 5, 5:23 AMJan 23, 4:59 AM

19.94%chance

15367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

834

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