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Prediction markets for Closed Alpha

When will Slay the Spire 2 be playable by the public?

Apr 10, 6:07 PMMar 3, 1:29 PM

276145

OptionProbability

Before 2026

Before December 2025

Before November 2025

Before October 2025

Before September 2025

Before August 2025

Before 2025

Before February 2025

Before March 2025

Before April 2025

Before May 2025

Before June 2025

Before July 2025

94

91

88

83

43

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What model is Horizon Alpha/Beta on Openrouter?

Jul 31, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:14 AM

191413

OptionProbability

A version of GPT-5

A version of OpenAI's open source model

Other

54

26

21

If/when humans send a mission to Alpha Centauri, will the subjective time experienced by the craft be more than 20 years?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.1%chance

9126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

163

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

3122

OptionProbability

NO

YES

285

169

If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)

Jun 13, 11:45 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.03%chance

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

250

250

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