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Prediction markets for Cloud Infrastructure

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.06%chance

3016238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7631

163

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.83%chance

202800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2870

348

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

151460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

353

28

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.35%chance

211414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

Now Amazon buys CEC Entertainment on 2031

Feb 10, 2:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.95%chance

5157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.92%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

Jan 20, 3:03 PMJan 15, 4:00 PM

40.47%chance

274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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