Cloud Run News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

YES

7381

168

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Feb 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

152152

OptionVotes

YES

102

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

Nov 12, 5:02 AMNov 19, 3:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2023

2024

When will Cloud Gaming / Game Streaming overtake Traditional "Local" Console Gaming? 🎮🕹️👾🏆⚔️

Mar 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

2033 to 2036

2029 to 2032

2025 to 2028

After 2036

Never

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

121

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

YES

208

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035?

Feb 23, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for Cloud Run

Prediction markets for Cloud Run

Prediction markets for Cloud Run

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

In what year will we confirm that there is a "machine economy"?

When will Cloud Gaming / Game Streaming overtake Traditional "Local" Console Gaming? 🎮🕹️👾🏆⚔️

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

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