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Prediction markets for Co

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.21%chance

716258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1685

451

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.3%chance

323706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

536

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

May 4, 2:33 AMMay 3, 3:59 AM

21.37%chance

183300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

799

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

78.72%chance

202654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1923

520

Will Ryan Reynolds and Rob McelHenney still be co-chairmen of Wrexham football club on 1st January 2026?

Jun 20, 7:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

89.28%chance

112082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2886

346

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?

Oct 8, 8:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

33.76%chance

171682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

899

Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?

Jul 1, 1:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.64%chance

161357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

74

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

953

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?

Oct 8, 8:11 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

36.61%chance

15832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

834

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?

Oct 8, 7:39 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

33.74%chance

12391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

862

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

47.09%chance

3136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

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