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Prediction markets for Co

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.62%chance

9812329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

864

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

May 4, 2:33 AMMay 3, 3:59 AM

11.47%chance

204238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

624

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

77.46%chance

232805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1854

539

Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?

Jul 1, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.07%chance

172283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

788

54

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?

Oct 8, 8:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

32.4%chance

181724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

878

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?

Oct 8, 8:11 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

36.61%chance

15832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

834

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?

Oct 8, 7:39 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

33.74%chance

12391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

862

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.04%chance

7350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will an income be imputed to my co-parent before end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

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