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Prediction markets for Co

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40%chance

8610239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

646

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

May 4, 2:33 AMMay 3, 3:59 AM

21.37%chance

183300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

799

will a paper released before 2030 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 22, 6:12 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

76.5%chance

222754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1804

554

Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?

Jul 1, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

131682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

129

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?

Oct 8, 8:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

33.76%chance

171682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

899

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

953

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?

Oct 8, 8:11 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

36.61%chance

15832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

834

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?

Oct 8, 7:39 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

33.74%chance

12391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

862

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will "Prologue to Terrified Comments on Claude's Co..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 1:51 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

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