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Coalition of the Willing News

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Prediction markets for Coalition of the Willing

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.49%chance

275580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

878

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.74%chance

192320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

61804

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Denk

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

81

80

69

46

40

40

40

40

25

18

18

17

12

12

4

Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza?

Nov 4, 10:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.1%chance

271437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

917

How many seats will Milei's La Libertad Avanza coalition gain in Argentina's 2025 elections to the Chamber of Deputies?

Dec 10, 10:50 PMDec 21, 5:59 AM

8645

OptionProbability

46-50 seats

41-45 seats

36-40 seats

31-35 seats

51-55 seats

56-60 seats

60-65 seats

26-30 seats

66-70 seats

≤ 25 seats

71-75 seats

≥ 76 seats

27

25

24

18

16

13

9

8

7

6

6

4

Will the next governing coalition of the Netherlands dissolve before its term is over if the PVV is part of it?

Jan 23, 7:27 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.02%chance

6344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

312

22

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

63.71%chance

6129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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