Code Assist News

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.75%chance

3610759

OptionVotes

YES

13856

7217

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Feb 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

152152

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

1079

784

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.07%chance

121967

OptionVotes

YES

1887

530

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Jul 2, 2:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

18556

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Feb 12, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

50.58%chance

14363

OptionVotes

YES

221

177

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Feb 14, 9:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

15337

OptionVotes

YES

1266

928

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Jan 14, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5230

OptionProbability

3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise

1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

100

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

215

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

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Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

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