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Prediction markets for Code Assist

OpenAI acquires Windsurf by EOY 2025?

Apr 21, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.79%chance

4032525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7399

135

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.99%chance

81838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1829

547

When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?

Feb 12, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

241204

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

<2028

<2027

<2026

<2025

88

76

62

58

48

32

5

Will I have developed a decent incremental game before the end of 2025?

Sep 27, 4:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

181143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1867

671

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16692

X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025

Apr 16, 6:50 PMOct 15, 12:00 AM

25.12%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Feb 14, 9:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

15337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

928

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.89%chance

10183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

164

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Jul 2, 2:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

21.7%chance

8152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

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