Code Assist News

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.54%chance

4113694

OptionVotes

YES

14102

7091

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Feb 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

152152

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.07%chance

121967

OptionVotes

YES

1887

530

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Feb 12, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

97%chance

181363

OptionVotes

YES

1046

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

316

Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?

Feb 24, 2:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Feb 14, 9:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

15337

OptionVotes

YES

1266

928

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.1%chance

17324

OptionVotes

YES

235

192

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Jan 14, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6257

OptionProbability

3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise

1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

100

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

202

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Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

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