Code Assist News

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.3%chance

348451

OptionVotes

YES

14345

6971

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

50.41%chance

343035

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

1079

784

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.99%chance

101948

OptionVotes

YES

1939

516

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

Jan 14, 9:55 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

78.37%chance

211297

OptionVotes

YES

190

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Feb 14, 9:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

15337

OptionVotes

YES

1266

928

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.7%chance

16314

OptionVotes

YES

225

196

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Jan 14, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5230

OptionProbability

3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise

1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

100

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Jul 2, 2:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.19%chance

9190

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

215

Code Assist News

Prediction markets for Code Assist

Prediction markets for Code Assist

Prediction markets for Code Assist

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Latest stories