Code Assist News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

YES

14201

7469

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.76%chance

4114764

OptionVotes

YES

14172

7056

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Jan 14, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91402

OptionProbability

3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise

1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season

6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards

1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code

3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other

1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security

1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing

100

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Sep 9, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.59%chance

71205

OptionVotes

YES

1985

843

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Jul 2, 2:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.55%chance

231176

OptionVotes

YES

521

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20857

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2044-2045

2026-2027

2030-2031

2031-2032

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

Was Anthropic's biology discovery actually from Claude users?

Sep 28, 7:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.15%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

107

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

202

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

YES

119

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

Was Anthropic's biology discovery actually from Claude users?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

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