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Prediction markets for Code Interpreter

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2262

219

Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?

Nov 26, 12:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3.77%chance

364378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2891

837

When will AI be better than humans at AI research? (Self-Improving AI)

Dec 14, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

443808

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2070

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2035

Before 2030

91

88

85

84

69

60

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Feb 15, 6:22 AMDec 31, 6:19 AM

232658

OptionProbability

Nothing other than the actual pizza food

Interactions with (incl. sexual exploitation of) underage girls

Child exploitation materials

Other

Adrenochrome

39

34

15

8

4

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Sep 9, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.59%chance

71205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1985

843

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

101

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Will Anthropic open-source the training code of their SAE interpretability effort?

Jul 3, 9:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5485

OptionProbability

this year, significantly incomplete

not before 2028

next year

this year, fully

Other

29

23

19

14

14

Fate of chardet?

Mar 14, 3:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2416

OptionProbability

License not LGPL-compatible, code not based on 6.x or earlier

Moved to Python standard library and/or forked

License LGPL-compatible, code not based on 6.x or earlier

Code based on 6.x or earlier

Abandoned or deleted (i.e. no newer release)

83

8

3

3

2

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

By 2030, can we convert at least 10% of an AI's weights to C code, enhancing interpretability?

Feb 7, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

6103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

115

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