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Prediction markets for Code Is Law

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4399

1460

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

102950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3326

301

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59%chance

162629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

429

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will Trump Prosectors get a Grand Jury to indict Comey again before the end of March 2026?

Dec 12, 11:08 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

41.95%chance

3616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.31%chance

3576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

691

Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027?

May 1, 11:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

62.57%chance

7223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

114

Official death penalty in Russia

Jun 26, 1:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7216

OptionProbability

2030-2031

Not before 2034

2028-2029

2026-2027

2032-2033

2024-2025

17

17

14

13

9

5

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

Chicago declares bankruptcy by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Mar 24, 2:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

66

41

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