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Prediction markets for Code Is Law

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

7.52%chance

12411624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5589

1347

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.71%chance

216649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2923

78

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Will anyone be charged under the new Idaho Bathroom Bill?

Apr 2, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:55 PM

37.29%chance

503219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1463

668

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

103200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

283

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.23%chance

81367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1654

605

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027?

May 1, 11:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

56.56%chance

9238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

129

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

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