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Prediction markets for Code Is Law

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

9.58%chance

12410624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4589

1439

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

103200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

283

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59%chance

162629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

429

Will Trump Prosectors get a Grand Jury to indict Comey again before the end of March 2026?

Dec 12, 11:08 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

11.58%chance

122391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2763

362

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

6976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

951

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027?

May 1, 11:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.52%chance

8228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

119

Official death penalty in Russia

Jun 26, 1:23 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

7216

OptionProbability

2030-2031

Not before 2034

2028-2029

2026-2027

2032-2033

2024-2025

17

17

14

13

9

0

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

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