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Prediction markets for Code Review Agent

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597852

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

50

25

22

20

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

1

0

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

25.93%chance

495232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

xAI (e.g., Grok)

Moonshot

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Other

89

7

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026

Apr 23, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.59%chance

21758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

Sep 9, 11:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.08%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

67

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027?

Aug 8, 11:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.88%chance

4123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

76

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

I fully switched to Codex as my main Coding Agent, will I switch back to Claude Code this year?

May 21, 6:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.7%chance

668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

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