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Prediction markets for Codeforces

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

Will Omar Aboutaleb (0mar) hit Candidate Master before June 12

Apr 13, 5:18 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

40%chance

555689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

Nov 27, 2:04 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.38%chance

323561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

401

128

Will susvent reach Candidate Master on Codeforces by his birthday (June 19, 2026)?

Feb 28, 9:16 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM

14%chance

173473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

184

By when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?

Feb 29, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18902

OptionProbability

2030

2027

2029

2028

2026

2025

35

34

33

31

29

2

When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?

Apr 25, 5:56 PMAug 25, 5:53 PM

8392

OptionProbability

After August 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before June 2026

71

27

27

13

Will any AI model achieve 4k on CodeForces by EOY?

Feb 14, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.92%chance

6257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

Will snowythecat reach Codeforces Master before January 1st, 2027?

Mar 12, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.81%chance

4219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Would Charles Rosenbauer @bzogrammer beat Victor Taelin at codeforces?

May 6, 1:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

34

Who will be first to Codeforces GM?

Apr 12, 1:58 AMJan 1, 2:57 AM

2160

OptionProbability

MattTheNub

CutSandstone

sklent

snowythecat

82

13

3

2

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2027

Mar 24, 2:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1130

OptionProbability

100%

95 - 99.9%

0 - 19.9%

20 - 39.9%

40 - 59.9%

60 - 79.9%

80 - 94.9%

64

20

3

3

3

3

3

Will I have reached Codeforces Master by the time I graduate?

Apr 3, 5:19 PMJun 3, 5:14 PM

58.34%chance

4107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

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