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Prediction markets for Codeforces

Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?

Mar 28, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.64%chance

5231630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9089

151

Top score on codeforces by an AI model at the end of 2025

Jan 27, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5117648

OptionProbability

4000+

3750-4000

3000-3250

3250-3500

3500-3750

2750-3000

<2750 (OpenAI's o3 at 2727)

32

25

14

10

10

6

1

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

118675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

68

59

45

0

AI is #1 competitive coder in CodeForces by EOY2025?

Mar 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.46%chance

405094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

122679

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

Dec 21, 6:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.14%chance

102611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2726

367

Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?

Dec 31, 11:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

40.52%chance

262550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2030

Mar 24, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7632

Will I reach 2000+ rating on Codeforces by the end of 2025?

Jun 17, 6:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.2%chance

4366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

By when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?

Feb 29, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11336

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2026

2028

2027

2025

37

35

32

31

26

13

Will I become a Candidate Master on Codeforces by EOY 2025?

May 15, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.47%chance

8308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

Would Charles Rosenbauer @bzogrammer beat Victor Taelin at codeforces?

May 6, 1:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

34

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