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Prediction markets for Codeforces

Will I make USACO camp in 2026

Aug 30, 8:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.26%chance

218926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

892

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

118675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

68

59

45

0

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

144660

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029 or Later

68

13

11

5

2

By when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?

Feb 29, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16761

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2026

2027

2025

37

35

31

31

26

2

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

Nov 27, 2:04 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

14735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

145

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2030

Mar 24, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7632

OptionProbability

100%

95 - 99.9%

0 - 19.9%

20 - 39.9%

40 - 59.9%

60 - 79.9%

80 - 94.9%

81

10

2

2

2

2

2

Would Charles Rosenbauer @bzogrammer beat Victor Taelin at codeforces?

May 6, 1:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

34

[Carlini questions] SOTA AI scores better than X% of other participants in competitive programming contest by 2027

Mar 24, 2:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1130

OptionProbability

100%

95 - 99.9%

0 - 19.9%

20 - 39.9%

40 - 59.9%

60 - 79.9%

80 - 94.9%

64

20

3

3

3

3

3

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the LiveCodeBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 8:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

21

19

15

9

9

9

9

9

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