Coder News

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

Oct 18, 7:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.2%chance

14525068

OptionVotes

YES

2038

531

AI is #1 competitive coder in CodeForces by EOY2025?

Mar 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.71%chance

445487

OptionVotes

YES

147

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 5:29 AMJan 2, 4:36 PM

323571

OptionProbability

OpenAI's GPT-4.5 / GPT-5

gemini-3-pro+Claude-opus-4-5+gpt-5.2+grok-4.1+veo-3.1+qwen3-max

Other

Anthropic's Claude 3 / 4

Google DeepMind's Gemini 1.5 / 2

Meta's LLaMA 3.x

Mistral models (Mixtral, Mistral 8x22B, etc.)

xAI's Grok (via X / Twitter)

Cohere's Command R+ or similar

Alibaba’s Qwen series

DeepSeek models (DeepSeek-VL, DeepSeek Coder, etc.)

Other (please comment)

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.48%chance

743078

OptionVotes

YES

2254

594

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.56%chance

352564

OptionVotes

YES

1131

896

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

60.27%chance

282217

OptionVotes

YES

1381

858

Will the UK return the Elgin Marbles to Greece before the end 2030?

Nov 28, 12:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.36%chance

262023

OptionVotes

YES

1474

541

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

15558

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

Will Cluely (formerly, Interview Coder) end Leetcode at a FAANG or Unicorn before 2026?

Apr 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.12%chance

7265

OptionVotes

YES

361

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

Nov 10, 7:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5122

OptionProbability

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>

You have a good sleep schedule

100

Coder News

Prediction markets for Coder

Prediction markets for Coder

Prediction markets for Coder

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

AI is #1 competitive coder in CodeForces by EOY2025?

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

Will the UK return the Elgin Marbles to Greece before the end 2030?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Will Cluely (formerly, Interview Coder) end Leetcode at a FAANG or Unicorn before 2026?

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

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