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Prediction markets for Coder

Will I regret taking a job at openai as a coder after graduating?

Jan 10, 5:04 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

28.66%chance

594632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

634

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.88%chance

774122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3322

444

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

46.97%chance

343605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

1103

Does the Q in Q* stand for either Q-Learning or Q-Values

Nov 23, 3:59 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

352573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

900

Will the UK return the Elgin Marbles to Greece before the end 2030?

Nov 28, 12:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.36%chance

262023

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

541

Vibenicorn exists by mid 2027

Jan 15, 6:01 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

12.78%chance

21613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2613

383

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18951

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

35

33

14

10

7

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

70

53

51

37

Will GitHub release a service called "GitHub Autopilot" before 2028?

Sep 19, 4:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.16%chance

7183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

46

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

Nov 10, 7:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5122

OptionProbability

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>

You have a good sleep schedule

100

100

100

75

50

34

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